Monday, November 12, 2012

What Caught My Eye Today - 2012 Presidential Election, Potpourri, 2016 Presidential Election

2012 Presidential Election: Most results from last Tuesday's U.S. election are now in. While Congress is basically unchanged in terms of balance of power, Democrats had a much better night than Republicans. Incumbent president Barack Obama had a very good night, winning 8 of 9 swing states (North Carolina went to Mitt Romney). Here's how things panned out:



Potpourri - As we close out this election (Hallelujah!), I give you a 2012 Presidential Election edition of Potpourri.

  • While the presidential race may have been close in the United States, it was a landslide for Obama in the rest of the world. In a survey of 21,797 people in 21 countries, 50% preferred an Obama victory, while just 9% preferred Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. The only nation in which Romney was more popular was Pakistan, where he edged out Obama 14% to 11%. You sort of have to wonder who got the other 75% of the vote in Pakistan, don't you?
  • In every presidential election since 1980, women have voted at a higher rate than men. In 2008, 60.4% of women voted, compare with 55.7% of men. Seeing as Obama won the female vote by 12 points over Romney, you can see how Obama got a second term.  The gap in other demographics is even more striking.  Bottom line...white males just don't have the same sway that they used to. Perhaps someone should send that memo to the GOP.
  • More than 58,000 campaign ads were broadcast in the month leading up to the election in Ohio. To view them all, you would have had to watch ads 24 hours a day for 80 days. I suppose that is one advantage to living is a non-battleground state. Honestly, would it be that bad for the country if we had a national primary day and cut the election cycle down from 4 freaking years to just a few months? No offense to Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio or any of the other battleground states, but why shouldn't my vote be considered as valuable as one of the votes from these states?
  • This was the most negative presidential campaign in modern history. 86% of President Obama's television ads and 79% of Mitt Romney's were negative. By comparison, Obama and John McCain spent an average of 69% of their TV budgets on negative ads in 2008, and George W Bush and John Kerry spent 58% in 2004. Attitude reflects leadership, my friends.  That's all I'm saying.

2016 Presidential Race - Oh come on! Are you serious? The 2016 campaign is closer than you think. Kill me. Kill me now, I'm begging you.  In some subtle ways, the jockeying to succeed Barack Obama or Mitt Romney already has begun. Already, rising star Republicans and Democrats have started making the circuit of political party dinners in Iowa, Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina as they seek to introduce themselves to the early primary voters trusted to cull the field.

For the Democrats, all eyes are on Clinton, the secretary of state who professes no interest but would have a clear advantage if she runs for the nomination that eluded her in 2008. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, too, is being talked about heavily in Democratic circles. Maryland's Martin O'Malley appears to be laying groundwork and snagged a plumb gig in September, as the guest of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin at his annual steak-fry fundraiser in the state that traditionally holds the kick-off caucuses. Other governors who may weigh bids: Colorado's John Hickenlooper, Massachusetts' Deval Patrick and Montana's Brian Schweitzer. Keep an eye, too, on mayors like Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, who co-chaired the Democratic convention and headlined the Iowa Democratic Party's annual fall fundraising dinner in Des Moines last month, following a long line of would-be presidential candidates. And another potential: mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, who delivered the keynote address. Truth be told, other than Clinton and Cuomo, I haven't heard of most of these names. I can see Cuomo throwing his hat in along with Villaraigosa and Castro, given the rise of the Hispanic vote, but I'm still not sure about Hillary.  2008 was pretty brutal and she had a great run as Secretary of State these past 4 years.

The list of Republicans who could step up is lengthy. Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan, this year's vice presidential nominee, would be toward the front of the pack if he ran. So, presumably, would a slate of governors -- Chris Christie of New Jersey, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin. From the Senate, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul could play for the tea party mantle, with the latter viewed as the heir to father Ron Paul's loyal base of libertarian-minded followers. So could Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a GOP sensation only two years into a Senate term. Former Pennsylvania Rick Santorum, the runner-up to Romney, could give it another go. And former Florida Governor Jeb Bush hasn't ruled anything out. Interestingly, I am much more familiar with this lot.  While much will depend on how the GOP re-tools its image (if it tries) and the mid-term elections, I have to believe Bush 3.0 (Jeb that is) and Rubio will certainly make a run at it. Chris Christie would make things entertaining, but may have alienated the conservative base too much by the time 2016 rolls around.

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