Monday, December 27, 2010

What Caught My Eye Today - 2010 Predictions Recap

Fred's Note: As we bring 2010 to a close its time to see how well I did with my second annual predictions. 2009 worked out rather well (if I do say so myself.) with a record of 6 correct predictions, 3 wrong and 1 push. The so-called experts managed only a 2 and 6 record. As always we start first with the experts:

2010 Predictions (Part I) -

  1. The start of WWIII. The war will begin in November of 2010 and will end in October of 2014. Will start as a normal war, then will include usage of nuclear and chemical weapons.
    Unless you consider the Republican party "shellacking" of the incumbent Democrats in the U.S. Congress the start of something really big, I going to have to chalk this one up as wrong.
  2. One or two US Supreme Court justices may become seriously ill or die by 2010.
    So close. If they had gone with retirement, they would have been golden.
  3. One or two more elderly Senators will die by the end of the year.
    Sadly, the distinguished senator from West Virginia, the Honorable Robert Byrd, made good on this prediction. It is also worth noting that former Alaska senator, Ted Stevens also pass away this year, falling victim to a plane crash in his home state.
  4. Confusion over leadership leads to the collapse of the North Korean government.
    Some regional experts say that the transition from the Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il, to his son Kim Jong-un is, for all intensive purposes, a fait accompli. So I have to give a thumbs down on this one, but boy, the prognosticators sure got close on this one.
  5. At least 3 Democrats will lose their seats to Republican or Independent candidates in the next election.
    Try 63, and that was just in the House of Representatives.
  6. Somalia will become a deadly battleground for the US.
    Not so much this year. Perhaps next.
  7. The Pacific Ring of Fire will trigger many storms and threats of a typhoon and/or tsunami damaging the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and China.
    Well, they forgot the volcanoes, but they got the rest right.
  8. An assassination attempt will be made on Afghanistan President, Hamid Karzai.
    Well, if there were any planned attempts, none of them made the press; and obviously, none of them succeeded.
  9. Tiger Woods attempts suicide.
    I double checked my notes on this one to see if they meant career suicide, but nope, they meant the real deal. Didn't happen.
  10. The Dow Jones Industrial average will finish the year under 9000.
    At last check, the Dow was safely treading water well above 11,500.
Final score for the experts: 3 right; 7 wrong.

2010 Predictions (Part II) -
Okay my turn...
  1. Olympics: The US will make the top 10 in medal count...barely.
    I guess I underestimated the American team. Turns out they topped the overall medal count with 37 medals, though the top gold medal count went to the host country of Canada (14 versus 9 for the U.S).
  2. Economy: The US unemployment rate will drop to 9.5%
    Not so much, I'm afraid. Still stuck at 9.8%.
  3. Economy: The Dow Jones Industrial average will finish above 11,750.
    In my defense, I came really close. But barring a miracle, I don't really see the Dow gaining the 200 or so points in the next couple of days that I would need to claim victory.
  4. International: Greece will be dissolved after it defaults on its national debt. Okay, not really, but I'm betting Greece will default on its international debt obligations.
    I'm sort of glad I was wrong on this deal, seeing as these sort of things rarely go well.
  5. International: Queen Elizabeth II will celebrate her Diamond Jubilee (60 years as queen).
    Yeah, yeah...I know way to stick my neck out on that one.
  6. Soccer: The US will make it into the knock out stage in the World Cup.
    Who da man? But can someone please explain to me what the U.S. team has to do in order to beat Ghana?
  7. Cycling: Lance Armstrong will win his 8th Tour de France title.
    Dude, lost his winning mojo, finishing in 39th place overall, but it was still fun to watch him ride.
  8. Golf: Tiger Woods will win at least one major.
    Boyfriend not only let me down here, but didn't manage a single victory of any kind all year. I'd say Karma was the big winner this year.
  9. Pop Culture: Brad Pitt and Angela Jolie breakup.
    Not so much. Good for them.
  10. Pop Culture: A female will win this year's American Idol.
    And wrong again. I think the big loser here is the show itself. Seriously, it was barely watchable this year and with no Simon Cowell around for the upcoming season, why bother at all?
If my math is right, it would appear that I too finished up the year 3 and 7. That said, I continue to maintain my lead over the "experts" with a 9-10-1 record versus their paltry 5 and 13. Bring on the new year!

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